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WTF is happening to crypto? – TechCrunch

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Four days ago the crypto markets were crashing hard. Now they’re crashing harder. Bitcoin, which hasn’t fallen past $6,000 for months, has dumped to $4,413.99 as of this morning, and nearly everything else is falling in unison. Ethereum, flying high at $700 a few months ago, is at $140. Coinbase, that bastion of crypto stability, is currently sporting a series of charts that look like Aspen black-diamond ski runs.

What is happening? There are a number of theories, and I’ll lay out a few of them here. Ultimately, sentiment is bleak in the crypto world, with bull runs being seen as a thing of a distant past. As regulators clamp down, pie-in-the-sky ideas crash and shady dealers take their shady dealings elsewhere, the things that made cryptocurrencies so much fun — and so dangerous — are slowly draining away. What’s left is anyone’s guess, but at least it will make things less interesting.

The bag holder theory

November was supposed to be a good month for crypto. Garbage sites like FortuneJack were crowing about bitcoin stability while the old crypto hands were optimistic and pessimistic at the same time. Eric Vorhees, founder of ShapeShift, felt that the inevitable collapse of the global financial system is good for folks with at least a few BTC in their wallets.

Others, like the Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, are expecting a bull run next year and said his company was particularly profitable.

Ultimately, crypto hype moves the market far more than it has any right to, and this is a huge problem.

So who do you believe, these guys or your own lying eyes? That’s a complex question. First, understand that crypto is a technical product weaponized by cash. Companies like Binance and Coinbase will work mightily to maintain revenue streams, especially considering Coinbase’s current level of outside investment. These are startups that can literally affect their own value over time. We’ll talk about that shortly. Ultimately, crypto hype hasn’t been matching reality of late, a major concern to the skittish investor.

“I think that the downturn is due to things not going up as much as people had wanted. Everyone was expecting November to be a bull month,” said Travin Keith, founder of Altrean. “When things indicated that it wasn’t going that way, those who were on borrowed time, such as those needing some buffer, or those in the crypto business needing some money, needed to sell.”

Tether untethered

Tether has long been the prime suspect in the Bitcoin run up and crash. Created by an exchange called Bitfinex, the currency is pegged to the dollar and, according to the exchange itself, each tether — about $2.7 billion worth — is connected to an actual dollar in someone’s bank account. Whether or not this is true has yet to be proven, and the smart money is on “not true.” I’ll let Jon Evans explain:

What are those whiffs of misconduct to which I previously referred? I mean. How much time do you have? One passionate critic, known as Bitfinexed, has been writing about this for quite some time now; it’s a pretty deep rabbit hole. University of Texas researchers have accused Bitfinex/Tether of manipulating the price of Bitcoin (upwards.) The two entities have allegedly been subpoenaed by US regulators. In possibly (but also possibly not — again, a fog of mystery) related news, the US Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into cryptocurrency price manipulation, which critics say is ongoing. Comparisons are also being drawn with Liberty Reserve, the digital currency service shut down for money laundering five years ago:

So what the hell is going on? Good question. On the one hand, people and even companies are innocent until proven guilty, and the opacity of cryptocurrency companies is at least morally consistent with the industry as a whole. A wildly disproportionate number of crypto people are privacy maximalists and/or really hate and fear governments. (I wish the US government didn’t keep making their “all governments become jackbooted surveillance police states!” attitude seem less unhinged and more plausible.)

But on the other … yes, one reason for privacy maximalism is because you fear rubber-hose decryption of your keys, but another, especially when anti-government sentiment is involved, is because you fear the taxman, or the regulator. A third might be that you fear what the invisible hand would do to cryptocurrency prices, if it had full leeway. And it sure doesn’t look good when at least one of your claims, e.g. that your unaudited reserves are “subject to frequent professional audits,” is awfully hard to interpret as anything other than a baldfaced lie.

Now Bloomberg is reporting that the U.S. Justice Department is looking into Bitfinex for manipulating the price of Bitcoin. The belief is that Bitfinex has allegedly been performing wash trades that propped up the price of Bitcoin all the way to its previous $20,000 heights. “[Researchers] claimed that Tether was used to buy Bitcoin at pivotal periods, and that about half of Bitcoin’s 1,400 percent gain last year was attributable to such transactions,” wrote Bloomberg. “Griffin briefed the CFTC on his findings earlier this year, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.”

This alone could point to the primary reason Bitcoin and crypto are currently in free fall: without artificial controls, the real price of the commodity becomes clear. A Twitter user called Bitfinex’d has been calling for the death of Tether for years. He’s not very bullish on the currency in 2019.

“I don’t know the when,” Bitfinex’d said. “But I know Tether dies along with Bitfinex.”

Le shitcoin est mort

As we learned last week, the SEC is sick of fake utility tokens. While the going was great for ICOs over the past few years with multiple companies raising millions if not billions in a few minutes, these salad days are probably over. Arguably, a seed-stage startup with millions of dollars in cash is more like a small VC than a product company, but ultimately the good times couldn’t last.

What the SEC ruling means is that folks with a lot of crypto can’t slide it into “investments” anymore. However, this also means that those same companies can be more serious about products and production rather than simply fundraising.

SEC intervention dampens hype, and in a market that thrives on hype, this is a bad thing. That said, it does mean that things will become a lot clearer for smaller players in the space, folks who haven’t been able to raise seed and are instead praying that token sales are the way forward. In truth they are, buttoning up the token sale for future users and, by creating regulation around it, they will begin to prevent the Wild West activity we’ve seen so far. Ultimately, it’s a messy process, but a necessary one.

“It all contributes to greater BTC antifragility, doesn’t it?,” said crypto speculator Carl Bullen. “We need the worst actors imaginable. And we got ’em.”

Bitmain

One other interesting data point involves Bitmain. Bitmain makes cryptocurrency mining gear and most recently planned a massive IPO that was supposed to be the biggest in history. Instead, the company put these plans on hold.

Interestingly, Bitmain currently folds the cryptocurrency it mines back into the company, creating a false scarcity. The plan, however, was for Bitmain to begin releasing the Bitcoin it mined into the general population, thereby changing the price drastically. According to an investor I spoke with this summer, the Bitmain IPO would have been a massive driver of Bitcoin success. Now it is on ice.

While this tale was apocryphal, it’s clear that these chicken and egg problems are only going to get worse. As successful startups face down a bear market, they’re less likely to take risks. And, as we all know, crypto is all about risk.

Abandon all hope? Ehhhhh….

Ultimately, crypto and the attendant technologies have created an industry. That this industry is connected directly to stores of value, either real or imagined, has enervated it to a degree unprecedented in tech. After all, to use a common comparison between Linux and blockchain, Linus Torvalds didn’t make millions of dollars overnight for writing a device driver in 1993. He — and the entire open-source industry — made billions of dollars over the past 27 years. The same should be true of crypto, but the cash is clouding the issue.

Ultimately, say many thinkers in the space, the question isn’t whether the price goes up or down. Instead, of primary concern is whether the technology is progressing.

“Crypto capitulation is once again upon us, but before the markets can rise again we must pass through the darkest depths of despair,” said crypto guru Jameson Lopp. “Investors will continue to speculate while developers continue to build.”



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iPhone 14 – Things we know so far

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Rumors about the iPhone 14 started popping up online before the iPhone 13 was announced — and though we don’t yet know what Apple has planned, there’s enough info floating around to speculate. The company is rumored to be working on a foldable iPhone, at least based on certain patents, but there’s no guarantee a folding model is in the pipeline at this time. In all likeliness, the next iteration of the iPhone will be called the iPhone 14 and it’ll stick to the trusted form factor from previous years.

Based on the rumors coming in, the iPhone 14 is likely to ditch the notch (which is thinner on the iPhone 13 lineup) and it may not have a camera bump on the rear. These are the two most interesting assumptions amid the other expectations that should pique your interest.

iPhone 14 display and body

Jon Prosser

The iPhone 14 is likely to share the same flat-edged design as the iPhone 13 with some changes in the display and body. The iPhone 13 brought a 120Hz ProMotion display to the iPhone Pro variants and rumors suggest that all four iPhone 14 models may come with this display tech. This isn’t guaranteed, however, as The Elec reported that ProMotion will be a Pro model exclusive and the standard iPhone 14 could feature an LTPS OLED display without the 120Hz ProMotion option.

There is a twist to the possible models the iPhone 14 could arrive in, however. Reportedly, the smaller 5.4-inch iPhone 13 mini will not have a successor in 2022; Apple may leave this size out of the equation and focus on larger-screen options. Instead of the mini, Apple may release the iPhone 14 Max with a 6.7-inch display – same as that of the iPhone 13 Pro Max – delivering a bigger screen model with a possibly larger battery, as well.

This means there would be four models in the iPhone 14 lineup but without the smaller screen option available in the iPhone 12 and 13 product lines. Based on the leaks, the upcoming product line may feature a 6.1-inch iPhone 14 and 14 Pro, as well as a larger 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Max and 14 Pro Max.

When it comes to the body design, meanwhile, prominent leaker Jon Prosser believes Apple will eliminate the camera bulge on the back of the iPhone 14 by using a thicker chassis. Some allegedly leaked images of the iPhone 14 Pro show a design resemblance to the iPhone 4 right from its front and back to the flat sides and the circular volume buttons.

Additionally, rumors also claim the iPhone 14 will feature a titanium alloy chassis, including a JP Morgan Chase report, as noted by Patently Apple. Titanium, which is stronger and more scratch-resistant than aluminum, has already been introduced on the Apple Watch and it may finally arrive on the iPhone line next year.

The notchless design

iPhone 14

Jon Prosser

If there is one thing that Apple fans want the iPhone to do away with, it’s the notch. The iPhone 13 was rumored to ditch this annoying design choice, but ultimately it remained — though its overall size was trimmed a bit from previous models.

With the launch of the iPhone 14, Apple is likely to herald the future of notch-less design, at least with the Pro models. Removal of the notch doesn’t mean a change in functionality, mind. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple will ditch the notch and replace it with a hole-punch selfie camera instead.

The facial scanning tech, meanwhile, will likely find a new home. The Face ID on iPhone 14, at least according to the rumors, will be placed under the display. Apple is believed to be working on the possibility of under-display Face ID, a claim that has been substantiated by multiple analysts, including Mark Gurman of Bloomberg.

iPhone 14 camera

iPhone 14

Jon Prosser

A new iPhone is always launched with better camera technology and the iPhone 14 isn’t likely to be an exception. This model will reportedly feature a tweaked appearance with a bump-free rear camera model — it’ll be built flush into the glass body, the leaks allege.

Analyst Kuo believes the iPhone 14 Pro models could beef up the main camera to 48-megapixel. Also rumored is the possibility of a periscope zoom lens and 8K video recording. From how the other OEMs are seeing the camera space, Apple could join the league with a quad-camera for the Pro models and a triple camera on the standard iPhone 14 models.

A powerful chip

iPhone

Each new iPhone comes with a more powerful and efficient processor. With that in mind, the A16 Bionic chipset is expected to power the iPhone 14. This will reportedly be built either on a 3nm or 4nm process by TSMC. Initially, it was believed that the chip would be based on a 3nm process, but there’s reason to believe that plan may have changed.

TSMC has talked about a shortage of 3nm chips, which means the iPhone 14 could feature a chip built on the 4nm process. This would offer certain advantages over the 5nm A15 chip in the iPhone 13 (via Tom’s Guide).

Other notable possibilities

iOS 15.1

Apple

The iPhone 12 made 5G on smartphones more acceptable. With the iPhone 13, it was all about network speed. Consumers have even bigger expectations for the iPhone 14. Apple could take on the challenge by utilizing the first 10-gigabit 5G modem – Snapdragon X65 – to offer improvements in both speed and connectivity.

Though the European Union proposes mandatory USB-C on all devices – including iPhones – Apple is likely to continue without it. Instead, rumors indicate the company may eliminate the iPhone’s Lightning port in favor of MagSafe charging to get rid of the port entirely.

With user safety in mind, Apple is also reportedly working on a crash detection feature for the iPhone 14. This alleged feature would detect an accident using the phone’s sensors and accelerometer, then instantly dial emergency services for help (via WSJ).

Final thoughts

Apple made some hearts skip a beat when it launched the new MacBook Pro models at almost twice the cost of their predecessors. Something similar is likely not in the works for the new iPhone, but things could change by the time the iPhone 14 is actually launched. The iPhone 14 lineup is expected to launch in September 2022 based on Apple’s history, but that may depend heavily on the wider industry’s status at that time and whether chip shortages remain an issue.

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Microsoft’s DNA storage research just hit a huge milestone

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Microsoft has detailed a major breakthrough in its work on synthetic DNA storage, specifically on improving data throughput. The proof-of-concept is the subject of a new study from Microsoft Research and a team at the University of Washington’s Molecular Information Systems Laboratory (MISL), paving the way for a future in which the world’s data is stored on lab-made DNA, not tapes and hard drives.

Billion Photos/Shutterstock

Old tech still dominates

Microsoft has spent years working on synthetic DNA data storage, a promising technology that aims to address growing storage demands. The company paints an elaborate, if not mind-boggling, picture centered around present-day and future data needs — the huge quantity of information that already exists, the amount produced every day, and growth predictions over the next two years.

Assuming those predictions are accurate, there will be approximately 8.9 zettabytes of data in storage around the world by 2024, according to IDC. That works out to around 9 million petabytes of data, which is still more than the average person can visualize. Microsoft translates that figure into a more relatable context: a single zettabyte would be equivalent to installing Windows 11 on more than 15 billion computers.

Maximumm/Shutterstock

Multiple types of data storage are commonly used, and though they seem positively archaic at this point, tape cartridges remain the most appealing commercial option due to their density (via IBM).

Magnetic tape has been around for several decades and offers some distinct benefits for companies that produce vast amounts of data: they help keep information secured away from hackers and can pack hundreds of terabytes of data in a small form factor. IBM says one tape cartridge utilizing its latest tech has a 580TB capacity, which would require more than three-quarters of a million CDs to store.

Using tape cartridges for data archival is a practice that will stick around for years, but there’s strong demand for a modern alternative that offers even greater density while eliminating many of the old tech’s problems. That, Microsoft says, is where synthetic DNA data storage comes in.

Why DNA?

Tape cartridges need to be rewritten every three or so decades at most, which is a short period of time when it comes to long-term data archiving. Synthetic DNA, on the other hand, is far more durable, Microsoft says, with the potential to preserve data for thousands of years. On top of that, synthetic DNA will likely drastically reduce the environmental impact of data centers, with Microsoft citing evidence that indicates lower water and energy use, as well as decreased greenhouse gas emissions.

Synthetic DNA data storage can only be a viable option if certain big hurdles are addressed, however. The technology is currently limited by low data throughput, specifically the rate at which data can be written. This, Microsoft notes, is a big stumbling block to large-scale synthetic DNA storage, not to mention the costs associated with the tech at this.

DNA storage graph

Image: Microsoft Research

The newly announced breakthrough revolves around throughput, presenting a proof-of-concept molecular controller. The researchers describe this innovation as a “tiny DNA storage writing mechanism on a chip,” which drastically improves how tightly DNA-synthesis spots are packed. The result is proof that higher levels of writing throughput are possible.

At its core, synthetic DNA storage involves moving data back and forth from molecules to bits. Microsoft explains that two things are critical for making DNA a viable commercial-scale storage option:

The first requires translating digital bits (ones and zeros) into strands of synthetic DNA representing these bits with encoding software and a DNA synthesizer. The second is to read and decode the information back into bits to recover that information into digital form again with a DNA sequencer and decoding software.

The company goes into extensive details about the new development and the wider processes involved in synthetic DNA storage in a new blog post. Storing data in DNA requires the information (in the form of digital bits) to be embedded in a DNA sequence’s A/C/T/G bases. The DNA chain is then synthesized, which typically involves a photochemical process.

Microsoft goes on to explain that electrochemical DNA synthesis side-steps some of the limitations inherent to photochemistry; it involves an array, electrodes, and cathodes. The new work details a synthesis method that successfully increased the rate at which the data was written in synthetic DNA, therefore boosting the throughput and, by proxy, decreasing the costs associated with synthesizing the DNA.

Though synthetic DNA storage isn’t yet ready to replace magnetic tape, Microsoft sees this latest development as a key step toward that reality. In its blog post detailing the study, Microsoft explained:

A natural next step is to embed digital logic in the chip to allow individual control of millions of electrode spots to write kilobytes per second of data in DNA. From there, we foresee the technology reaching arrays containing billions of electrodes capable of storing megabytes per second of data in DNA. This will bring DNA data storage performance and cost significantly closer to tape.

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Apple Watch Series 7 Review

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Nobody can deny that the Apple Watch won the smartwatch wars, and the latest Apple Watch Series 7 only extends that lead. A collection of endearing enhancements rather than the all-out reinvention that some expected, 2021’s version blends a bigger display with the improvements of watchOS 8, for a result that, though predictable, is no less impressive for it.

Both watch and display are slightly larger, though the former’s mild growth is not something you’re going to notice day to day. The latter, though, is more obvious. The 41mm (from $399) and 45mm (from $429) versions have a screen that’s nearly 20-percent bigger than on the previous-generation Apple Watch. It’s still a beautiful OLED panel, crisp and easy to read, and Apple says the always-on mode – when the smartwatch is in standby rather than raised up – is brighter than before. Just how much brighter, a new algorithm decides.

Honestly, I’m not sure the Apple Watch display needed to be any bigger. Not for my (corrected) eyesight, anyway, though I’ll concede that if you typically wear reading glasses then the larger fonts of the Series 7 probably are an improvement. Still, it’s worth noting that you’ve been able to increase font size and weight in watchOS for some time now.

What’s turned out to make a bigger difference is, quite literally, the edge cases. The Apple Watch’s screen now continues under the curved sides of its cover glass; viewed off-angle, it gives a fascinating three-dimensional effect, akin to stacked physical complications on a mechanical watch face.

Unless you’re the sort of – brave – person who wears two watches at once, one on each wrist, most of us make a singular decision about what graces their arm. I have a few “nice” mechanical watches already, but I choose to wear the Apple Watch for a user-experience the others can’t deliver. The trade-off is that the digital watch, with its accommodations to functionality, has never quite felt like a piece of charming jewelry in the same way that a traditional timepiece might.

Call me crazy, but the way the Apple Watch Series 7’s screen melds so interestingly into the curvature of the glass feels like a nod back to one of the key lures of old-school watches. Something that’s not necessarily a functional decision, but which elevates the smartwatch nonetheless. No, the dedicated Rolex or IWC owner may still not find that enough to make the switch, but it’s enough to have caught my eye when I glance down at my angled wrist.

The rest of the hardware feels very familiar. Apple says the front crystal is tougher than before, and the whole watch now has IP6X certification for dust resistance along with WR50 water resistance. It means you can take it swimming and wear it without concern on the beach, though I’d still – as with any watch – be cautious about banging it against hard objects.

There are aluminum, stainless steel, and titanium cases to choose from, in a variety of colors depending on the metal. Factor in the growing array of Apple’s own and third-party bands, and you can feasible take your Apple Watch from the gym to the office to a fancy wedding without it looking out of place. I’m rather partial to the blue aluminum of my review unit, though the green version is striking, too.

Battery life is about the same – 18 hours of typical use – but there’s a new charger included in the box. That promises up to 33-percent speedier recharging, though only with the Series 7, since it also relies on changes Apple made inside the watch itself. We’re still not quite at supercharge levels yet, but it did trim down a top-up when I forgot to recharge the Apple Watch overnight as I normally would. If you’re in the habit of tracking sleep with the wearable then the improvements are likely even more useful; in the time it would take to have a leisurely shower, you could more than likely add sufficient juice for the rest of the day.

If there’s one place the larger screen pays dividends, it’s Apple’s addition of an on-screen QWERTY keyboard to watchOS. Until now, Siri and voice-to-text dictation was the primary text input method for Apple Watch, bar a handful of canned responses to messages and the like. It works okay, but I doubt I’m the only person who feels self-conscious talking into their watch like a wannabe Dick Tracy. Or, you could scribble a letter at a time, a quieter if more time-consuming system.

The on-screen keyboard offers another approach. It uses the same autocorrect as on iPhone, along with auto-complete, to minimize the amount of tapping and swiping you’ll need to do. You can peck at each letter, or drag your fingertip around and let the mighty algorithm do its decoding. Most of the time, I’ve found, it’s been accurate.

You’re not going to be sending lengthy emails or writing term papers this way, but it’s another welcome step toward the Apple Watch feeling like a standalone device in its own right, rather than an adjunct to the iPhone. It’s worth noting that only the Series 7 gets the QWERTY keyboard, one of a handful of watchOS 8 features exclusive to the newer, larger model.

One of the reasons I wear an Apple Watch daily is fitness tracking. I’m not a fan of working out, and so watchOS’ needling reminders to close my move, stand, and exercise rings are one of those things that I hate-appreciate. The array of sensors is not really changed from last year’s watch: blood oxygen saturation, which is very dependent on where the Apple Watch is positioned on your wrist; heart rate tracking; ECG for signs of irregular heart rhythm; and an always-on altimeter that tracks height. Tempting as it is to think of the Apple Watch as a mini doctor on your wrist, though, it’s not a medical device.

Improvements in watchOS have made tracking cycling more accurate, Apple says, as well as better figuring out just how much effort you’re actually putting in if you’ve got an e-bike. Fall detection should handle falls from while cycling more intelligently, too. Since I’m usually clipped into a Peloton instead, however, I’ve not noticed those improvements in daily life.

Similarly, if I had one of the latest BMW’s with their support for digital key, I could use the Apple Watch Series 7 and its U1 chip to unlock the car when I got close. Sadly I do not, though Apple does say it’s working with other automakers on implementing the technology. Given the rate of change of the car industry versus the tech world, mind, you could probably wait for the Apple Watch Series 8 or 9 before there’s a much bigger choice in vehicles.

Attempting to aid your patience there is the new Mindfulness app. It absorbs the functionality of the old Breathe app – which would periodically, infuriatingly, remind you to breathe – and adds a Reflect mode, which encourages 1-5 minutes of meditation. I could probably do with taking time out for that as much as any other middle-aged man who spends too much of the day online, but there’s something about the Apple Watch’s prompts that pumps my blood pressure instead. You can, of course, turn those notifications off.

Apple Watch Series 7 Verdict

On the one hand, the Apple Watch Series 7 is another incremental upgrade. If you already have a Series 6 on your wrist, or even a Series 5, you could realistically sit 2021’s version out and simply upgrade watchOS for many of the newer improvements. All the same, it’s a testament to just how good the Apple Watch was, and is, that Apple hasn’t really needed to reinvent the wheel in order to maintain its lead. I know a fair few people who stick with their iPhone predominantly because they don’t want to give up their Apple Watch, and I can’t say I blame them.

If you’re in that group, then the new watchOS is probably the best place to start. Those yet to dive into Apple Watch ownership, however, should begin their journey here. Apple may not have made vast changes to this generation of wearable, but the Apple Watch is still the best smartwatch, and the Apple Watch Series 7 is the best of the best.

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